This is the first of a number of analyses of Mr Aslen's figures and methods that I will publish here, as my time permits.
GERS 2005 used 5.6% (£1.313bn) as the Scotland:UK ratio for fuel excise duties. The SNP used 9% (£2.098bn) in “Scotland in Surplus”.
Mr Aslen used a massive 20.8% (£4.839bn) in The Great Deception but apart from referring to “the dominant position of the Grangemouth Refinery in the UK” and saying that he had “calculated the fuel duty from the production figures” he did not provide any further justification.
I also calculated the fuel duty from the production figures, but the following suggests that around only 4.53% (£1.057bn) of the total UK fuel excise duty comes from Grangemouth, Scotland's sole fuel refinery. This is £3.782bn below Mr Aslen's estimate.
| FUEL TYPE | PROPORTION OF OUTPUT | DAILY OUTPUT (litres) | 2004 EXCISE DUTY (£/l) | DAILY EXCISE DUTY (£) | ANNUAL EXCISE DUTY (£) |
| Petrol | 22% | 2,090,000 | 0.5170 | 1,080,530 | 394,393,450 |
| Diesel | 24% | 2,280,000 | 0.4852 | 1,106,256 | 403,783,440 |
| Kerosene & jet fuel | 13% | 1,235,000 | 0.2895 | 357,533 | 130,499,363 |
| Gas oil | 8% | 760,000 | 0.0664 | 50,464 | 18,419,360 |
| Fuel oil | 15% | 1,425,000 | 0.0624 | 88,920 | 32,455,800 |
| LPG/petrochemical feedstocks | 12% | 1,140,000 | 0.1303 | 148,542 | 54,217,830 |
| Fuel gas/other | 6% | 570,000 | 0.1110 | 63,270 | 23,093,550 |
| GRANGEMOUTH TOTAL (£) | 1,056,862,793 | ||||
| UK TOTAL (£) | 23,314,000,000 | ||||
| GRANGEMOUTH AS % OF UK | 4.53% | ||||
Proportion of output data:
http://www.ukpia.com/industry_information/refining_uk_refineries/refineries/ineos_grangemouth_refinery.aspx
Hydrocarbon duty rates 2004-05: (some assumptions on fuel type breakdown were required - please critique)
http://customs.hmrc.gov.uk/channelsPortalWebApp/downloadFile?contentID=HMCE_PROD_009002
Total daily Grangemouth output is "over 9 million litres". I used 9.5m.
http://www.innovene.com/genericarticle.do-categoryId=9002816&contentId=7005620.htm
